The Asymmetric Bet Calculator
Smaller losses, smaller normal gains, occasional big years. Set your own numbers and compare to buy-and-hold.
A hypothetical illustration from parameters you control, applied to real S&P 500 total returns (dividends reinvested). Not a projection of Jay's actual returns. Not financial advice.
50% allocated to the S&P 500 (dividends reinvested), up years and down years alike
1 breakout year in every 3 years
60% return on the rest of the portfolio, in a breakout year
30 years of history
Buy and hold ending balance
$187,172
Hypothetical strategy ending balance
$612,094
How often this beats just buying and holding
89 out of 89 times (100%)
Checked across every possible time period in 98 years of data, not just the one below.
I paid $100M to learn these rules
Here they are, free, before you pay the same price.