How Extended Are We?
Set your own bar for what counts as an "up" year, then see how long the current run has gone.
Historical data: S&P 500 total returns, dividends reinvested. Not predictive. Not financial advice.
Beats 5.0%
4 years in a row
Right now, if 2026 holds
4 years beating 5.0%
2023-2026 ยท 2026 so far: 10.7% (not final, price return)
Longer than 83% of streaks since 1928 (98 years of data).
Without 2026: 3 years (2023-2025).
What followed past streaks like this
Every past run of 4+ years beating 5.0%, and what came next.
- 1942-1945 (4 years in a row), then: -8.4%, 5.2%, 5.7%
- 1947-1952 (6 years in a row), then: -1.2%, 52.6%, 32.6%
- 1982-1989 (8 years in a row), then: -3.1%, 30.2%, 7.5%
- 1995-1999 (5 years in a row), then: -9.0%, -11.8%, -22.0%
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